AI is dramatically accelerating AI research
If acceleration compounds, the naive extrapolation implies superintelligence within a year
Quick read
An analysis of a METR report suggesting Anthropic’s internal use of AI has roughly doubled its rate of AI capabilities progress, likely driven mostly by AI automating AI R&D. The post explains why such researcher speedups could compound, implying much shorter timelines for extreme capabilities and raising significant AI-risk implications.
- METR found Anthropic’s AECI doubled Oct 2025-Oct 2026
- Author estimates researcher uplift ~4-12x from AI automation
- Compound acceleration could lead to rapidly shortening timelines
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