A new Antarctic ice sheet model projects Thwaites Glacier could raise sea levels by up to
Grounding zones, where seawater intrudes under grounded ice and causes melting, are largely absent from ice-sheet models. Adding them improves Thwaites Glacier hindcasts 4-fold and doubles sea-level projections with respect to past estimates.
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This Nature Communications article describes an ice-sheet model that represents kilometer-scale grounding zones beneath Thwaites Glacier and uses those grounding-zone processes to reproduce recent observed retreat and to project future behavior. The revised model shows grounding-zone-driven unpinning could occur as early as 2038 and could produce up to 30 u00b1 6 mm of global mean sea-level rise by 21
- Model reproduces retreat only when grounding zones are 2-5 km wide
- Grounding-zone processes can trigger unpinning from seafloor ridges by 2038
- Adds grounding zones doubles 2100 sea-level projection to ~30 u00b1 6 mm
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A new Antarctic ice sheet model projects Thwaites Glacier could raise sea levels by up to was shared on NexURLs by skilo on October 18, 2026, in Science.
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